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James Emanuel's avatar

Q3 figures have resulted in a draw down presenting an interesting entry opportunity today.

While the quarter was softer than the corresponding period last year, the nine-months to September were better than last year. Quarterly cyclicality in the oil and gas sector is nothing new.

The investment thesis still looks very much in tact.

Key points I pulled out of the quarterly release:

(a) Third quarter saw a reduction in activity... for two primary reasons. First was apprehension and preparation for a potentially severe forest fire season, leading some customers to delay the execution of planned projects to the end of the forest fire season. The second reason was some customers took advantage of the summer months to allow employees extended time off to prepare employees for the up coming demands of another year of busy field activity

(b) The increasing demand for natural gas power generation systems indicates a shift towards lower emission alternatives, and going forward, market conditions remain favourable for the energy sector, resulting in increased drilling, completion, and infrastructure projects. These factors are expected to continue for the remainder of 2024 and 2025.

(c) During the nine months ended September 30, 2024, the Company acquired $13,452,761 of capital assets, primarily for natural gas power generation equipment and facilities, upgrading existing equipment, and meeting specific requests from customers.

(d) Enterprise announced a new five year exclusivity agreement with FlexEnergy Solutions... The agreement positions Enterprise... as the sole provider of short-term turbine and microturbine applications across all commercial and industrial sectors in Alberta and British Columbia.

My take away from this are:

1. Low activity in Q3 will very likely translate to higher activity in the quarters to follow

2. Both customers and Enterprise are gearing up for an acceleration in activity

3. We still have the LNG revolution happening from 2025 in Canada

4. The company is still expanding into adjacent industries and expanding its territorial reach

James Emanuel's avatar

Enterprise likely to be a beneficiary of turmoil in Middle East

The LNG market has been thrown into disarray following the escalation of the U.S. Israeli conflict with Iran in early March 2026. Iranian drone strikes across the Gulf triggered a shutdown at Qatar’s Ras Laffan and Mesaieed facilities, removing roughly 20% of global LNG supply almost overnight. At the same time, attacks and threats around the Strait of Hormuz have effectively halted commercial shipping through the corridor. The result is a sudden supply shock in a market that was already tight. European and Asian gas prices surged within days as buyers rushed into the spot market and war risk insurance for shipping evaporated.

The disruption lands hardest in Europe and Asia, which typically absorb around 80% of Qatar’s LNG exports. China, India, Japan, South Korea and the EU now face a sharp supply gap just as inventories were tightening. Analysts estimate the combined effect could remove close to one fifth of global LNG supply in the near term, with no clear timeline for recovery as production and shipping depend on a de escalation that has yet to materialize.

Demand is now shifting rapidly toward the few stable exporters capable of responding. North American LNG sits at the center of that adjustment. Canada’s LNG Canada project in Kitimat is ramping toward its full 14 million tonnes per year capacity and has already shipped dozens of cargoes. The shock is also accelerating investment in additional Canadian capacity, including potential expansions and new projects, as global buyers look for supply outside an increasingly volatile Gulf.

Enterprise is a picks and shovels business that sits at the heart of the Canadian LNG market. It's share price was unfairly punished when it embarked on an equity raise to acquire FlexEnergy Canada making it the exclusive supplier of the market leading power turbines in the country. That acquisition also doubled the capacity of Enterprise, in terms of the number of generators in its inventory. The cost of this hardware is paid for in under 3 years, yet it remains in service for decades. Gross margins for this business are almost as good as software companies. Earnings are out on 12 March. A re-rating is long over due and the boom coming to Canadian LNG is a strong tailwind.

Food for thought.

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