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James Emanuel's avatar

Q3 figures have resulted in a draw down presenting an interesting entry opportunity today.

While the quarter was softer than the corresponding period last year, the nine-months to September were better than last year. Quarterly cyclicality in the oil and gas sector is nothing new.

The investment thesis still looks very much in tact.

Key points I pulled out of the quarterly release:

(a) Third quarter saw a reduction in activity... for two primary reasons. First was apprehension and preparation for a potentially severe forest fire season, leading some customers to delay the execution of planned projects to the end of the forest fire season. The second reason was some customers took advantage of the summer months to allow employees extended time off to prepare employees for the up coming demands of another year of busy field activity

(b) The increasing demand for natural gas power generation systems indicates a shift towards lower emission alternatives, and going forward, market conditions remain favourable for the energy sector, resulting in increased drilling, completion, and infrastructure projects. These factors are expected to continue for the remainder of 2024 and 2025.

(c) During the nine months ended September 30, 2024, the Company acquired $13,452,761 of capital assets, primarily for natural gas power generation equipment and facilities, upgrading existing equipment, and meeting specific requests from customers.

(d) Enterprise announced a new five year exclusivity agreement with FlexEnergy Solutions... The agreement positions Enterprise... as the sole provider of short-term turbine and microturbine applications across all commercial and industrial sectors in Alberta and British Columbia.

My take away from this are:

1. Low activity in Q3 will very likely translate to higher activity in the quarters to follow

2. Both customers and Enterprise are gearing up for an acceleration in activity

3. We still have the LNG revolution happening from 2025 in Canada

4. The company is still expanding into adjacent industries and expanding its territorial reach

James Emanuel's avatar

Evolution PowerX is becoming a rather different company from the one its historical numbers suggest. Formerly Enterprise Group, the business has spent years acquiring and consolidating energy-service companies, but the strategic centre of gravity is now shifting towards natural-gas power generation and critical infrastructure.

The H1 numbers provide some evidence that the transition is working. Second-quarter revenue increased 36% to $8.8 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased an extraordinary 164% to $2.1 million. For the first six months, revenue was up 24% to $20.8 million and adjusted EBITDA increased 45% to $7.5 million. More importantly, this was the fourth consecutive quarter in which both revenue and adjusted EBITDA increased.

The interesting part is not simply the growth rate, but where that growth is coming from. Evolution is building a fleet of natural-gas turbine generators and microgrid systems that allow customers to replace diesel with lower-emission, reliable on-site power. The company acquired FlexEnergy Canada in 2025, giving it exclusive rights to rent, lease, sell and service FlexEnergy turbines in Canada, with long-term leasing and maintenance contracts providing a recurring revenue element. That is strategically important because it starts to change the economics of the business. Instead of being entirely dependent on project-based oilfield activity, Evolution can increasingly earn recurring revenue from equipment that is already deployed at customer sites. The company says this has already reduced the seasonality of the traditional energy-services business.

There is also a potentially much larger opportunity emerging around electricity demand. Evolution has just added a 3.2-megawatt natural-gas turbine to its fleet, with commercial availability expected in the fourth quarter. Management describes it as capable of powering everything from drilling rigs and production facilities to industrial operations and next-generation AI data centres, and sees the initial deployment as the first step towards a broader fleet of larger-capacity turbines. That is where the story becomes more interesting. The company is not trying to compete with the massive utility-scale power generators being built for hyperscalers. It is addressing a different problem: reliable, relatively flexible power close to the point of demand. As electrification, data centres, mining and industrial projects increase electricity requirements, distributed natural-gas generation can provide customers with power where and when they need it.

That is ultimately what makes Evolution PowerX interesting. This is still a small company, still exposed to the cyclicality of Western Canadian energy activity and still carrying meaningful financial leverage, so there are plenty of things that can go wrong. But the strategic direction is becoming much clearer. Management is effectively trying to transform a traditional oilfield-services consolidator into a broader distributed-power platform, using its existing customer relationships and infrastructure expertise as the starting point.

The name change to Evolution PowerX is therefore more than cosmetic. It is a statement about where management believes the company is going.

The company also repurchased 1.25 million shares during H1 at an average price of $1.27, while management owns approximately 30% of the company.

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