Having read my analysis of Amazon, and my humble opinion that it is a better choice than Alphabet or Apple, you suggest that you are rethinking your Apple and Alphabet positions.
To clarify, I am not suggesting that Apple and Alphabet shares won't continue to rise. However, the market is currently broken (see: https://rockandturner.substack.com/p/is-the-stock-market-broken) which means share prices often deviate significantly from intrinsic value. For instance, Apple's sales and earnings declined in 2023 and, as of 2024, remained below 2022 levels. Yet, during this same two-year period, its share price doubled. Is this sustainable? In a broken market, who can say?
The core issue lies in the distinction between investing and speculation. Intelligent investing is an academic game of skill and wit, while speculation is a game of chance. I identify as an investor, not a speculator. My point in this article is that, in my view, Amazon represents an intelligent investment for the reasons I’ve outlined. Conversely, I currently see Apple and Alphabet as far more speculative.
Please note that my writing is for informational purposes only. It’s intended to encourage constructive thinking, not to guide your investment decisions directly.
Consider this analogy: betting on red at a casino roulette table gives you less than a 50/50 chance of winning because of the green spaces, yet the payout is only even money. It's a bad bet. Fundamentally, my advice against taking such a bet would be sound. But if you were to bet on red anyway and win, doubling your money, does that make my reasoning flawed? Does it mean your decision was correct?
I trust you understand the point I’m making. Whatever choices you make, I hope your investment decisions work out well for you.
Very good article, thanks for sharing. I share your view about AMZN being the best option of the mag 7, but also hold a smaller position in GOOG.
You do have a few typos in the valuation part - the values should be $170 (not $1.70), $392 (not $3.92), etc. I assume this may have something to do with UK companies being denominated in pence :)
Thanks for the report, makes me think about my existing Apple and Alphabet position :-/
Having read my analysis of Amazon, and my humble opinion that it is a better choice than Alphabet or Apple, you suggest that you are rethinking your Apple and Alphabet positions.
To clarify, I am not suggesting that Apple and Alphabet shares won't continue to rise. However, the market is currently broken (see: https://rockandturner.substack.com/p/is-the-stock-market-broken) which means share prices often deviate significantly from intrinsic value. For instance, Apple's sales and earnings declined in 2023 and, as of 2024, remained below 2022 levels. Yet, during this same two-year period, its share price doubled. Is this sustainable? In a broken market, who can say?
The core issue lies in the distinction between investing and speculation. Intelligent investing is an academic game of skill and wit, while speculation is a game of chance. I identify as an investor, not a speculator. My point in this article is that, in my view, Amazon represents an intelligent investment for the reasons I’ve outlined. Conversely, I currently see Apple and Alphabet as far more speculative.
Please note that my writing is for informational purposes only. It’s intended to encourage constructive thinking, not to guide your investment decisions directly.
Consider this analogy: betting on red at a casino roulette table gives you less than a 50/50 chance of winning because of the green spaces, yet the payout is only even money. It's a bad bet. Fundamentally, my advice against taking such a bet would be sound. But if you were to bet on red anyway and win, doubling your money, does that make my reasoning flawed? Does it mean your decision was correct?
I trust you understand the point I’m making. Whatever choices you make, I hope your investment decisions work out well for you.
Very good article, thanks for sharing. I share your view about AMZN being the best option of the mag 7, but also hold a smaller position in GOOG.
You do have a few typos in the valuation part - the values should be $170 (not $1.70), $392 (not $3.92), etc. I assume this may have something to do with UK companies being denominated in pence :)
Thank you for pointing out the formatting of the money values. It has been corrected now.