Having read my analysis of Amazon, and my humble opinion that it is a better choice than Alphabet or Apple, you suggest that you are rethinking your Apple and Alphabet positions.
To clarify, I am not suggesting that Apple and Alphabet shares won't continue to rise. However, the market is currently broken (see: https://rockandturner.substack.com/p/is-the-stock-market-broken) which means share prices often deviate significantly from intrinsic value. For instance, Apple's sales and earnings declined in 2023 and, as of 2024, remained below 2022 levels. Yet, during this same two-year period, its share price doubled. Is this sustainable? In a broken market, who can say?
The core issue lies in the distinction between investing and speculation. Intelligent investing is an academic game of skill and wit, while speculation is a game of chance. I identify as an investor, not a speculator. My point in this article is that, in my view, Amazon represents an intelligent investment for the reasons I’ve outlined. Conversely, I currently see Apple and Alphabet as far more speculative.
Please note that my writing is for informational purposes only. It’s intended to encourage constructive thinking, not to guide your investment decisions directly.
Consider this analogy: betting on red at a casino roulette table gives you less than a 50/50 chance of winning because of the green spaces, yet the payout is only even money. It's a bad bet. Fundamentally, my advice against taking such a bet would be sound. But if you were to bet on red anyway and win, doubling your money, does that make my reasoning flawed? Does it mean your decision was correct?
I trust you understand the point I’m making. Whatever choices you make, I hope your investment decisions work out well for you.
Very good article, thanks for sharing. I share your view about AMZN being the best option of the mag 7, but also hold a smaller position in GOOG.
You do have a few typos in the valuation part - the values should be $170 (not $1.70), $392 (not $3.92), etc. I assume this may have something to do with UK companies being denominated in pence :)
Amazon has secured its first known UK military contract through its satellite venture, Project Kuiper, which won a £670,000 deal with the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and UK Space Command. It will undertake a study on advanced space-based communications systems. The consultancy deal involves Kuiper exploring the use of “translator” satellites for British military purposes.
Kuiper’s research will focus on “translator” satellites, which aim to improve communications between military, government, and private networks, an area also being explored by the US Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).
This move aligns with Western governments' efforts to find alternatives to Musk’s Starlink, as geopolitical concerns over his business ties gain attention. Amazon has already established itself as a key UK government supplier through its Amazon Web Services (AWS) division, and it recently received approval from Ofcom (The Office of Communications - the regulatory and competition authority for the broadcasting, telecommunications and postal industries of the United Kingdom) to provide satellite-based broadband in Britain.
Amazon has been actively engaging with defence officials worldwide seeking additional contracts for its growing satellite business.
The UK is advancing its military satellite programs, including the £5bn GBP Skynet-6 project, while also exploring intelligence-gathering satellite networks. The EU is funding its own sovereign satellite constellation, Iris2, and Taiwan has already engaged with Amazon over Kuiper amid concerns about Elon Musk's Chinese allegiance (China is a huge market for Tesla, so there is a conflict of interest that concerns Taiwan).
These developments reflect growing interest in securing independent and diversified space-based communication networks, all of which is great news for Amazon's project Kuiper.
Thanks for the report, makes me think about my existing Apple and Alphabet position :-/
Having read my analysis of Amazon, and my humble opinion that it is a better choice than Alphabet or Apple, you suggest that you are rethinking your Apple and Alphabet positions.
To clarify, I am not suggesting that Apple and Alphabet shares won't continue to rise. However, the market is currently broken (see: https://rockandturner.substack.com/p/is-the-stock-market-broken) which means share prices often deviate significantly from intrinsic value. For instance, Apple's sales and earnings declined in 2023 and, as of 2024, remained below 2022 levels. Yet, during this same two-year period, its share price doubled. Is this sustainable? In a broken market, who can say?
The core issue lies in the distinction between investing and speculation. Intelligent investing is an academic game of skill and wit, while speculation is a game of chance. I identify as an investor, not a speculator. My point in this article is that, in my view, Amazon represents an intelligent investment for the reasons I’ve outlined. Conversely, I currently see Apple and Alphabet as far more speculative.
Please note that my writing is for informational purposes only. It’s intended to encourage constructive thinking, not to guide your investment decisions directly.
Consider this analogy: betting on red at a casino roulette table gives you less than a 50/50 chance of winning because of the green spaces, yet the payout is only even money. It's a bad bet. Fundamentally, my advice against taking such a bet would be sound. But if you were to bet on red anyway and win, doubling your money, does that make my reasoning flawed? Does it mean your decision was correct?
I trust you understand the point I’m making. Whatever choices you make, I hope your investment decisions work out well for you.
Very good article, thanks for sharing. I share your view about AMZN being the best option of the mag 7, but also hold a smaller position in GOOG.
You do have a few typos in the valuation part - the values should be $170 (not $1.70), $392 (not $3.92), etc. I assume this may have something to do with UK companies being denominated in pence :)
Thank you for pointing out the formatting of the money values. It has been corrected now.
AMAZON BREAKING NEWS
Amazon has secured its first known UK military contract through its satellite venture, Project Kuiper, which won a £670,000 deal with the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and UK Space Command. It will undertake a study on advanced space-based communications systems. The consultancy deal involves Kuiper exploring the use of “translator” satellites for British military purposes.
Kuiper’s research will focus on “translator” satellites, which aim to improve communications between military, government, and private networks, an area also being explored by the US Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).
This move aligns with Western governments' efforts to find alternatives to Musk’s Starlink, as geopolitical concerns over his business ties gain attention. Amazon has already established itself as a key UK government supplier through its Amazon Web Services (AWS) division, and it recently received approval from Ofcom (The Office of Communications - the regulatory and competition authority for the broadcasting, telecommunications and postal industries of the United Kingdom) to provide satellite-based broadband in Britain.
Amazon has been actively engaging with defence officials worldwide seeking additional contracts for its growing satellite business.
The UK is advancing its military satellite programs, including the £5bn GBP Skynet-6 project, while also exploring intelligence-gathering satellite networks. The EU is funding its own sovereign satellite constellation, Iris2, and Taiwan has already engaged with Amazon over Kuiper amid concerns about Elon Musk's Chinese allegiance (China is a huge market for Tesla, so there is a conflict of interest that concerns Taiwan).
These developments reflect growing interest in securing independent and diversified space-based communication networks, all of which is great news for Amazon's project Kuiper.